Just to simplify your approach to a non-mathematician, you’re proposing not doing any information flow analysis but finding autonomously cases where an information input, like the opinion poll, is not adding any useful information. And you name one way to do this.
Fair enough but the problem is that if you do an information flow analysis—“does any causal mechanism exist where this source could provide information”? - you can skip considering the faulty information with 100% probability. Sheer chance can show a correlation using your proposed approach.
Just to simplify your approach to a non-mathematician, you’re proposing not doing any information flow analysis but finding autonomously cases where an information input, like the opinion poll, is not adding any useful information. And you name one way to do this.
Fair enough but the problem is that if you do an information flow analysis—“does any causal mechanism exist where this source could provide information”? - you can skip considering the faulty information with 100% probability. Sheer chance can show a correlation using your proposed approach.