Thanks gwern! Jaynes is the original source of the height example, though I read it years ago and did not have the reference handy. I wrote this recently after realizing (1) the fallacy is standard practice in meta-analysis and (2) there is a straightforward better approach.
(Older LWers will be familiar with this as E.T. Jaynes’s “Emperor of China fallacy” from chapter 8.)
Thanks gwern! Jaynes is the original source of the height example, though I read it years ago and did not have the reference handy. I wrote this recently after realizing (1) the fallacy is standard practice in meta-analysis and (2) there is a straightforward better approach.