Average all the group members’ suggestions as to how many Rhode Islands will fit in Alaska, then throw out the guess farthest from the average, re-average, and make that the center of your distribution.
Ah… sorry for not being clear. My suggestion was meant to help participants test their rationality, learn about biases, and internalize that knowledge through experience, not as a way to improve their estimate.
Average all the group members’ suggestions as to how many Rhode Islands will fit in Alaska, then throw out the guess farthest from the average, re-average, and make that the center of your distribution.
Ah… sorry for not being clear. My suggestion was meant to help participants test their rationality, learn about biases, and internalize that knowledge through experience, not as a way to improve their estimate.