Do you have a feeling for what a good adjustment factor is that one could apply to the result to compensate the first kind of problem?
microCOVID uses https://apidocs.covidactnow.org/ for US positive test rates. I removed the “apidocs.” part, entered my county, and it gives you a graph showing daily new cases. I think you could take a look at that graph and then try to extrapolate out seven days or so.
For example, I live in Multnomah County, OR. The last day they have is 2/18/22 and the number is 29.7 (new cases per 100k people). On 2/11/22 it was 47.8. The decline is slowing, so maybe we can say a 15k drop over 7 days. So over 10 days, maybe 21k or something. Which would mean we’re currently at something like 9k cases/day.
I’m a little confused by your methodology here—if the last day they have is 2⁄18, and today is 2⁄22 (or was 2⁄21 when you posted it), why are you extrapolating out by 10 days (29.7 − 21 ~ 9k)?
More generally, does the following seem like a valid way to input data manually into microCOVID?
Take the last reported daily cases/100K from covidactnow.org. Reduce by extrapolating to what you’d expect for today
Multiply by 7 and input into “Reported cases in past week”
Enter “100000” into Total Population
Leave “Percent increase in cases from last week to this week” at 0%, since you can’t set it to negative
Take the latest “percent of tests that come back positive” as-is from the latest number available at covidactnow
Take the “2+ or J&J” number and enter it into “Percent of population fully vaccinated” (looking at the default number in there before I typed mine in, it looks like that’s what microCOVID is using, not % boosted)
Hi! I suppose that question mostly goes to Adam? The importer is fixed, so I’m not doing any of this anymore. What I did was to extrapolate to the current, incomplete week n using the slope from week n-2 to n-1. Then I set the percent increase to 0 because the week is actually the current week already.
But the differences from week to week will, in most cases, be minor, so I don’t think it’s important to get this exactly right. There are so many other uncertain factors that go into the model that I don’t recommend investing too much time into this one.
microCOVID uses https://apidocs.covidactnow.org/ for US positive test rates. I removed the “apidocs.” part, entered my county, and it gives you a graph showing daily new cases. I think you could take a look at that graph and then try to extrapolate out seven days or so.
For example, I live in Multnomah County, OR. The last day they have is 2/18/22 and the number is 29.7 (new cases per 100k people). On 2/11/22 it was 47.8. The decline is slowing, so maybe we can say a 15k drop over 7 days. So over 10 days, maybe 21k or something. Which would mean we’re currently at something like 9k cases/day.
Good. There’s a site for Switzerland like that too. I extrapolated from that in a similar manner. :-)
I’m a little confused by your methodology here—if the last day they have is 2⁄18, and today is 2⁄22 (or was 2⁄21 when you posted it), why are you extrapolating out by 10 days (29.7 − 21 ~ 9k)?
More generally, does the following seem like a valid way to input data manually into microCOVID?
Take the last reported daily cases/100K from covidactnow.org. Reduce by extrapolating to what you’d expect for today
Multiply by 7 and input into “Reported cases in past week”
Enter “100000” into Total Population
Leave “Percent increase in cases from last week to this week” at 0%, since you can’t set it to negative
Take the latest “percent of tests that come back positive” as-is from the latest number available at covidactnow
Take the “2+ or J&J” number and enter it into “Percent of population fully vaccinated” (looking at the default number in there before I typed mine in, it looks like that’s what microCOVID is using, not % boosted)
Thanks!
Hi! I suppose that question mostly goes to Adam? The importer is fixed, so I’m not doing any of this anymore. What I did was to extrapolate to the current, incomplete week n using the slope from week n-2 to n-1. Then I set the percent increase to 0 because the week is actually the current week already.
But the differences from week to week will, in most cases, be minor, so I don’t think it’s important to get this exactly right. There are so many other uncertain factors that go into the model that I don’t recommend investing too much time into this one.
Thanks!