Nor can you assume that is not the case to argue against being inside a simulation. Speculations about whether consciousness can be simulated are no help either way. If you’re being simulated you don’t have any base reality to perform experiments on to decide what things are true. You don’t even have a testable model of what you might be being simulated on.
So, deciding between two logically consistent but incompatible hypotheses that you can’t directly test, you’re down to Occam’s Razor, which I think favours base reality rather than a simulated universe.
I agree with all of that.
But Bostrom’s argument is a bad choice for EY’s purposes, because the flaws in it are subtle and not really a case of any one premise being plumb wrong.
Nor can you assume that is not the case to argue against being inside a simulation. Speculations about whether consciousness can be simulated are no help either way. If you’re being simulated you don’t have any base reality to perform experiments on to decide what things are true. You don’t even have a testable model of what you might be being simulated on.
So, deciding between two logically consistent but incompatible hypotheses that you can’t directly test, you’re down to Occam’s Razor, which I think favours base reality rather than a simulated universe.
I agree with all of that. But Bostrom’s argument is a bad choice for EY’s purposes, because the flaws in it are subtle and not really a case of any one premise being plumb wrong.