I expect the general chaos combined with supply chain disruptions around Taiwan to have slowed things down.
Won’t supply chain disruption around Taiwan take at least many months to cause a considerable slowdown? Naively, we might expect that AI companies get around 10% more FLOP/s each month (for around 3.5x per year).
This is a good point, and one that I honestly hadn’t considered. To be clear, I wasn’t suggesting that the blockade or whatever would necessarily have happened in August, but still. I’ll edit the post to reflect updating to think maybe Taiwan chaos won’t slow things down as quickly as I was naively modeling.
Won’t supply chain disruption around Taiwan take at least many months to cause a considerable slowdown? Naively, we might expect that AI companies get around 10% more FLOP/s each month (for around 3.5x per year).
This is a good point, and one that I honestly hadn’t considered. To be clear, I wasn’t suggesting that the blockade or whatever would necessarily have happened in August, but still. I’ll edit the post to reflect updating to think maybe Taiwan chaos won’t slow things down as quickly as I was naively modeling.