This is why the modal narrative, which is more likely than any other particular story, centers around loss of human control the end of 2027
I think this isn’t a strong enough statement. Indeed, the median narrative is longer. However, even the modal narrative ought to include at least one unspecified obstacle occurring. In a three-year plan, the most frequent scenarios have something go wrong.
I think the idea here is to bin things into fairly specific narratives. Even if you think there’s an 80% chance of some kind of obstacle, you can end up with 20% no obstacle, 10% obstacle A, 10% obstacle B, 10% obstacle C, etc and thus no obstacle being the mode.
I think this isn’t a strong enough statement. Indeed, the median narrative is longer. However, even the modal narrative ought to include at least one unspecified obstacle occurring. In a three-year plan, the most frequent scenarios have something go wrong.
I think the idea here is to bin things into fairly specific narratives. Even if you think there’s an 80% chance of some kind of obstacle, you can end up with 20% no obstacle, 10% obstacle A, 10% obstacle B, 10% obstacle C, etc and thus no obstacle being the mode.