You are right and I am wrong. Oops. After writing my comment I scrolled up to the top of my post, saw the graph from Manafold (not Metaculus), thought “huh, I forgot the market was so confident” and edited in my parenthetical without thinking. This is even more embarrassing because no market question is actually about the probability conditional on no pause occurring, which is a potentially important factor. I definitely shouldn’t have added that text. Thank you.
(I will point out, as a bit of an aside, that economically transformative AI seems like a different threshold than AGI. My sense is that if an AGI takes a million dollars an hour to run an instance, it’s still an AGI, but it won’t be economically transformative unless it’s substantially superintelligent or becomes much cheaper.
I don’t think Metaculus is that confident. Some questions:
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/19356/transformative-ai-date/
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5406/world-output-doubles-in-4-years-by-2050/
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/date-of-artificial-general-intelligence/ (the resolution criteria for this is much weaker than AGI and reasonably likely to trigger much earlier).
Even the last of these has only ~80% by 2050.
You are right and I am wrong. Oops. After writing my comment I scrolled up to the top of my post, saw the graph from Manafold (not Metaculus), thought “huh, I forgot the market was so confident” and edited in my parenthetical without thinking. This is even more embarrassing because no market question is actually about the probability conditional on no pause occurring, which is a potentially important factor. I definitely shouldn’t have added that text. Thank you.
(I will point out, as a bit of an aside, that economically transformative AI seems like a different threshold than AGI. My sense is that if an AGI takes a million dollars an hour to run an instance, it’s still an AGI, but it won’t be economically transformative unless it’s substantially superintelligent or becomes much cheaper.
Still, I take my lumps.)