Actually I think clarifies our difference in opinion for me.
I’ve been a bit puzzled about your projected futures. If you aren’t including post-scarcity as a big part of your model, the disagreement makes sense. If I weren’t, I’d agree with you that leaders would always be using the lions share and leaving scraps for the remainder. It’s just that the scraps become arbitrarily huge in a post-scarcity scenario.
Are you envisioning something like the US government, China, Altman, AModia, Zuckerbergerg, and/or Musk physically in other nations or in orbit, all of them building spaceships or weapons or fortifications or palaces with their self-replicating robotic factories? That seems like something that could happen, to me. But I’d think that period of intense competition would be fairly brief. You can’t spend all your resources on weapons forever without using them. The situaation seems likely to become stable somehow. And even if it doesn’t, spending even 1% of the new exponentially increasing pie on giving people what they want would provide more material well-being than we’ve ever had.
People like to feel like they get a say, but even in a democracy they really don’t have much say and don’ta feel they do. So I’m not sure that will make life worse either.
Anyway, I’d like to see more concrete scenarios laid out to flesh out your intuitions on competition preventing post-scarcity dynamics. You don’t have to do that, but I’d love it if someone would. Because I think you are in the majority in the whole population. I don’t know how opinions fall out in this community or other specific intellectual communities.
Actually I think clarifies our difference in opinion for me.
I’ve been a bit puzzled about your projected futures. If you aren’t including post-scarcity as a big part of your model, the disagreement makes sense. If I weren’t, I’d agree with you that leaders would always be using the lions share and leaving scraps for the remainder. It’s just that the scraps become arbitrarily huge in a post-scarcity scenario.
Are you envisioning something like the US government, China, Altman, AModia, Zuckerbergerg, and/or Musk physically in other nations or in orbit, all of them building spaceships or weapons or fortifications or palaces with their self-replicating robotic factories? That seems like something that could happen, to me. But I’d think that period of intense competition would be fairly brief. You can’t spend all your resources on weapons forever without using them. The situaation seems likely to become stable somehow. And even if it doesn’t, spending even 1% of the new exponentially increasing pie on giving people what they want would provide more material well-being than we’ve ever had.
People like to feel like they get a say, but even in a democracy they really don’t have much say and don’ta feel they do. So I’m not sure that will make life worse either.
Anyway, I’d like to see more concrete scenarios laid out to flesh out your intuitions on competition preventing post-scarcity dynamics. You don’t have to do that, but I’d love it if someone would. Because I think you are in the majority in the whole population. I don’t know how opinions fall out in this community or other specific intellectual communities.