I think this is true but also that “most people’s reasons for believing X are vibes-based” is true for almost any X that is not trivially verifiable. And also that this way of forming beliefs works reasonably well in many cases. This doesn’t contradict anything you’re saying but feels worth adding, like I don’t think AI timelines are an unusual topic in that regard.
E.g. there are many activities that many people engage in frequently—eating, walking around, reading, etc etc. Knowledge and skill related to those activities is usually not vibes-based, or only half vibes-based, or something, even if not trivially verifiable. For example, after a few times accidentally growing mold on some wet clothes or under a sink, very many people learn not to leave areas wet.
E.g. anyone who studies math seriously must learn to verify many very non-trivial things themselves. (There will also be many things they will believe partly based on vibes.)
I don’t think AI timelines are an unusual topic in that regard.
In that regard, technically, yes, but it’s not very comparable. It’s unusual in that it’s a crucial question that affects very many people’s decisions. (IIRC, EVERY SINGLE ONE of the >5 EA / LW / X-derisking adjacent funder people that I’ve talked to about human intelligence enhancement says “eh, doesn’t matter, timelines short”.) And it’s in an especially uncertain field, where consensus should much less strongly be expected to be correct. And it’s subject to especially strong deference and hype dynamics and disinformation. For comparison, you can probably easily find entire communities in which the vibe is very strongly “COVID came from the wet market” and others where it’s very strongly “COVID came from the lab”. You can also find communities that say “AGI a century away”. There are some questions where the consensus is right for the right reasons and it’s reasonable to trust the consensus on some class of beliefs. But vibes-based reasoning is just not robust, and nearly all the resources supposedly aimed at X-derisking in general are captured by a largely vibes-based consensus.
I think this is true but also that “most people’s reasons for believing X are vibes-based” is true for almost any X that is not trivially verifiable. And also that this way of forming beliefs works reasonably well in many cases. This doesn’t contradict anything you’re saying but feels worth adding, like I don’t think AI timelines are an unusual topic in that regard.
Broadly true, I think.
I’d probably quibble a lot with this.
E.g. there are many activities that many people engage in frequently—eating, walking around, reading, etc etc. Knowledge and skill related to those activities is usually not vibes-based, or only half vibes-based, or something, even if not trivially verifiable. For example, after a few times accidentally growing mold on some wet clothes or under a sink, very many people learn not to leave areas wet.
E.g. anyone who studies math seriously must learn to verify many very non-trivial things themselves. (There will also be many things they will believe partly based on vibes.)
In that regard, technically, yes, but it’s not very comparable. It’s unusual in that it’s a crucial question that affects very many people’s decisions. (IIRC, EVERY SINGLE ONE of the >5 EA / LW / X-derisking adjacent funder people that I’ve talked to about human intelligence enhancement says “eh, doesn’t matter, timelines short”.) And it’s in an especially uncertain field, where consensus should much less strongly be expected to be correct. And it’s subject to especially strong deference and hype dynamics and disinformation. For comparison, you can probably easily find entire communities in which the vibe is very strongly “COVID came from the wet market” and others where it’s very strongly “COVID came from the lab”. You can also find communities that say “AGI a century away”. There are some questions where the consensus is right for the right reasons and it’s reasonable to trust the consensus on some class of beliefs. But vibes-based reasoning is just not robust, and nearly all the resources supposedly aimed at X-derisking in general are captured by a largely vibes-based consensus.