I’m not sure if the two are separable. Let’s say you believe in “great man” theory of history (I.e. few people disproportionately shape history, and not institutions, market forces etc). Then your ability to predict what other great men could do automatically means you may have some of the powers of a great man yourself.
Also yes I mean he isn’t exceptionally skilled at either of the two. My bet is there are people who can make significantly better predictions than him, if only they also understood technical details of AI.
Sorry for delay in reply.
I’m not sure if the two are separable. Let’s say you believe in “great man” theory of history (I.e. few people disproportionately shape history, and not institutions, market forces etc). Then your ability to predict what other great men could do automatically means you may have some of the powers of a great man yourself.
Also yes I mean he isn’t exceptionally skilled at either of the two. My bet is there are people who can make significantly better predictions than him, if only they also understood technical details of AI.