I can’t tell what you mean by much of this (e.g. idk what you mean by “pretty simple heuristics” or “science + engineering SI” or “self-play-ish regime”). (Not especially asking you to elaborate.) Most of my thoughts are here, including the comments:
I would take a bet with you about what we expect to see in the next 5 years.
Not really into formal betting, but what are a couple Pareto[impressive, you’re confident we’ll see within 5 years] things?
But more than that, what kind of epistemology do you think I should be doing that I’m not?
Come on, you know. Actually doubt, and then think it through.
I mean, I don’t know. Maybe you really did truly doubt a bunch. Maybe you could argue me from 5% omnicide in next ten years to 50%. Go ahead. I’m speaking from informed priors and impressions.
I can’t tell what you mean by much of this (e.g. idk what you mean by “pretty simple heuristics” or “science + engineering SI” or “self-play-ish regime”). (Not especially asking you to elaborate.) Most of my thoughts are here, including the comments:
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/sTDfraZab47KiRMmT/views-on-when-agi-comes-and-on-strategy-to-reduce
Not really into formal betting, but what are a couple Pareto[impressive, you’re confident we’ll see within 5 years] things?
Come on, you know. Actually doubt, and then think it through.
I mean, I don’t know. Maybe you really did truly doubt a bunch. Maybe you could argue me from 5% omnicide in next ten years to 50%. Go ahead. I’m speaking from informed priors and impressions.