The examples seem to assume that “and” and “or” as used in natural language work the same way as their logical counterpart. I think this is not the case and that it could bias the experiment’s results.
As a trivial example the question “Do you want to go to the beach or to the city?” is not just a yes or no question, as boolean logic would have it.
Not everyone learns about boolean logic, and those who do likely learn it long after learning how to talk, so it’s likely that natural language propositions that look somewhat logical are not interpreted as just logic problems.
I think that this is at play in the example about Russia. Say you are on holidays and presented with one these 2 statements:
1. “Going to the beach then to the city”
2. “Going to the city”
The second statement obviously means you are going only to the city, and not to the beach nor anywhere else before.
Now back to Russia:
1. “Russia invades Poland, followed by suspension of diplomatic relations between the USA and the USSR”
2. “Suspension of diplomatic relations between the USA and the USSR”
Taken together, the 2nd proposition strongly implies that Russia did not invade Poland: after all if Russia did invade Poland no one would have written the 2nd proposition because it would be the same as the 1st one.
And it also implies that there is no reason at all for suspending relations: the statements look like they were made by an objective know-it-all, a reason is given in the 1st statement, so in that context it is reasonable to assume that if there was a reason for the 2nd statement it would also be given, and the absence of further info means there is no reason.
Even if seeing only the 2nd proposition and not the 1st, it seems to me that humans have a need to attribute specific causes to effects (which might be a cognitive bias), and seeing no explanation for the event, it is natural to think “surely, there must be SOME reason, how likely is it that Russia suspends diplomatic relations for no reason?”, but confronted to the fact that no reason is given, the probability of the event is lowered.
It seems that the proposition is not evaluated as pure boolean logic, but perhaps parsed taking into account the broader social context, historical context and so on, which arguably makes more sense in real life.
The examples seem to assume that “and” and “or” as used in natural language work the same way as their logical counterpart. I think this is not the case and that it could bias the experiment’s results.
As a trivial example the question “Do you want to go to the beach or to the city?” is not just a yes or no question, as boolean logic would have it.
Not everyone learns about boolean logic, and those who do likely learn it long after learning how to talk, so it’s likely that natural language propositions that look somewhat logical are not interpreted as just logic problems.
I think that this is at play in the example about Russia. Say you are on holidays and presented with one these 2 statements:
1. “Going to the beach then to the city”
2. “Going to the city”
The second statement obviously means you are going only to the city, and not to the beach nor anywhere else before.
Now back to Russia:
1. “Russia invades Poland, followed by suspension of diplomatic relations between the USA and the USSR”
2. “Suspension of diplomatic relations between the USA and the USSR”
Taken together, the 2nd proposition strongly implies that Russia did not invade Poland: after all if Russia did invade Poland no one would have written the 2nd proposition because it would be the same as the 1st one.
And it also implies that there is no reason at all for suspending relations: the statements look like they were made by an objective know-it-all, a reason is given in the 1st statement, so in that context it is reasonable to assume that if there was a reason for the 2nd statement it would also be given, and the absence of further info means there is no reason.
Even if seeing only the 2nd proposition and not the 1st, it seems to me that humans have a need to attribute specific causes to effects (which might be a cognitive bias), and seeing no explanation for the event, it is natural to think “surely, there must be SOME reason, how likely is it that Russia suspends diplomatic relations for no reason?”, but confronted to the fact that no reason is given, the probability of the event is lowered.
It seems that the proposition is not evaluated as pure boolean logic, but perhaps parsed taking into account the broader social context, historical context and so on, which arguably makes more sense in real life.