I think I’m confused what your position is then. It’s true that economic competition is generally unstable in that the specific balance of power between competitors is unstable, but competition itself is often quite stable and doesn’t collapse into either chaos or monopoly unless there’s something weird about the competitive environment that allows this to happen (e.g. no rule of law, protective regulations, etc.).
I also expect the whole Autofac Era to feel quite unstable to people because things will be changing quickly. And I also don’t expect it to last too long, because I think it’s a short period of a few years between its start and the development of AGI (or, if for some reason AGI is impossible, then Hansonian EMs).
Sorry for a long reply, It looks like the outcome depends on the speed of technological enhancement and regulations. If the advantage of autofac grows faster than competitors can react (through violence, alliances, blockades), the system will collapse into a monopoly. I personally believe that there is a greater than 0.5 chance that autofac will not be bound by any laws or regulations, because:
1. We currently cannot handle even simple problems in alignment. 2. Outside of alignment too.
I think I’m confused what your position is then. It’s true that economic competition is generally unstable in that the specific balance of power between competitors is unstable, but competition itself is often quite stable and doesn’t collapse into either chaos or monopoly unless there’s something weird about the competitive environment that allows this to happen (e.g. no rule of law, protective regulations, etc.).
I also expect the whole Autofac Era to feel quite unstable to people because things will be changing quickly. And I also don’t expect it to last too long, because I think it’s a short period of a few years between its start and the development of AGI (or, if for some reason AGI is impossible, then Hansonian EMs).
Sorry for a long reply,
It looks like the outcome depends on the speed of technological enhancement and regulations. If the advantage of autofac grows faster than competitors can react (through violence, alliances, blockades), the system will collapse into a monopoly.
I personally believe that there is a greater than 0.5 chance that autofac will not be bound by any laws or regulations, because:
1. We currently cannot handle even simple problems in alignment.
2. Outside of alignment too.