One of the assumptions I’m making is that if AI dispossesses billions of people, that’s billions of people who can rebel by attacking automation infrastructure. There might be a way to pull off dispossession gently so that by the time anyone thinks to rebel it’s already too late, but I expect less well coordinated action, and instead sudden shocks that will have to be responded to. The only way to prevent violence that threatens the wealth of capital owners will be to find a way to placate the mass of would-be rebels (since doing something like killing everyone who doesn’t have a job or own capital is and will be morally reprehensible and so not a real option), and I expect UBI to be the solution.
@FlorianH I see you reacted that you think I missed your point, but I’m not so sure I did. You seem to be making an argument that an economy can still function even if some actors leave that economy so long as some actors remain, which is of course true, but my broader point is about sustaining a level of consumption necessary for growth, and a fully automated economy could quickly reach the limits of its capacity to produce (and the wealth of the remaining consumers) if there are very few consumers. I expect to need a large base of consumers for there to be sufficient growth to justify the high costs of accelerating automation.
One of the assumptions I’m making is that if AI dispossesses billions of people, that’s billions of people who can rebel by attacking automation infrastructure. There might be a way to pull off dispossession gently so that by the time anyone thinks to rebel it’s already too late, but I expect less well coordinated action, and instead sudden shocks that will have to be responded to. The only way to prevent violence that threatens the wealth of capital owners will be to find a way to placate the mass of would-be rebels (since doing something like killing everyone who doesn’t have a job or own capital is and will be morally reprehensible and so not a real option), and I expect UBI to be the solution.
@FlorianH I see you reacted that you think I missed your point, but I’m not so sure I did. You seem to be making an argument that an economy can still function even if some actors leave that economy so long as some actors remain, which is of course true, but my broader point is about sustaining a level of consumption necessary for growth, and a fully automated economy could quickly reach the limits of its capacity to produce (and the wealth of the remaining consumers) if there are very few consumers. I expect to need a large base of consumers for there to be sufficient growth to justify the high costs of accelerating automation.