Unfortunately, prediction markets need some bright red line somewhere to be resolvable. I encourage you to make a different market that captures the thing you care about.
But people with the belief that we aren’t going to be able to fully understand models frequently take this as a reason not to pursue ambitious/rigorous interpretability. I thought that was the position you were taking, by using the market to decide whether the agenda is “good” or not.
Unfortunately, prediction markets need some bright red line somewhere to be resolvable. I encourage you to make a different market that captures the thing you care about.
I don’t care about prediction markets.
But people with the belief that we aren’t going to be able to fully understand models frequently take this as a reason not to pursue ambitious/rigorous interpretability. I thought that was the position you were taking, by using the market to decide whether the agenda is “good” or not.