a related thing that I will mention here so that I don’t have to write a separate post about it:
although updating on evidence is a good thing, it is bad to think “I have updated on evidence, therefore I am now more right than others”. maybe you just had to update more than others because you started from an especially stupid prior, so the fact that you updated more than others doesn’t mean that you are now closer to the truth.
as a silly example, imagine a group of people believing that 2+2=4, and an unlucky guy who believes that 2+2=7. after being exposed to lots of evidence, the latter updates to believing that 2+2=5, because 7 is obviously too much.
now it is tempting for the unlucky guy to conclude “I did a lot of thinking about math, and I have changed my mind as a result. those other guys, they haven’t changed their minds at all, they are just stuck with their priors. they should update too, and then we can all arrive to the correct conclusion that 2+2=5”.
a related thing that I will mention here so that I don’t have to write a separate post about it:
although updating on evidence is a good thing, it is bad to think “I have updated on evidence, therefore I am now more right than others”. maybe you just had to update more than others because you started from an especially stupid prior, so the fact that you updated more than others doesn’t mean that you are now closer to the truth.
as a silly example, imagine a group of people believing that 2+2=4, and an unlucky guy who believes that 2+2=7. after being exposed to lots of evidence, the latter updates to believing that 2+2=5, because 7 is obviously too much.
now it is tempting for the unlucky guy to conclude “I did a lot of thinking about math, and I have changed my mind as a result. those other guys, they haven’t changed their minds at all, they are just stuck with their priors. they should update too, and then we can all arrive to the correct conclusion that 2+2=5”.