one very easy way to trick our own calibration sensors is to add a bunch of caveats or considerations that make it feel like we’ve modeled all the uncertainty (or at least, more than other people who haven’t). so one thing i see a lot is that people are self-aware that they have limitations, but then over-update on how much this awareness makes them calibrated
Agree, and well put. I think the language of “my best guess” “it’s plausible that” etc. can be a bit thought-numbing for this and other reasons. It can function as plastic bubble wrap around the true shape of your beliefs, preventing their sharp corners from coming into contact with reality. Thoughts coming into contact with reality is good, so sometimes I try to deliberately strip away my precious caveats when I talk.
I most often to this when writing or speaking to think, not to communicate, since by doing this you pay the cost of not communicating your true confidence level which can of course be bad.
Agree, and well put. I think the language of “my best guess” “it’s plausible that” etc. can be a bit thought-numbing for this and other reasons. It can function as plastic bubble wrap around the true shape of your beliefs, preventing their sharp corners from coming into contact with reality. Thoughts coming into contact with reality is good, so sometimes I try to deliberately strip away my precious caveats when I talk.
I most often to this when writing or speaking to think, not to communicate, since by doing this you pay the cost of not communicating your true confidence level which can of course be bad.