It seems extremely net-positive for civil rights, but mainly through the mechanism of it making Lyndon Johnson a viable candidate for president while maintaining his stature with the southern democrats, leading ultimately to the Civil Rights Act of 1964.
This can be seen as a generalizable lesson only insofar as you think weak bills like that are typically passed by Lyndon Johnson-like figures playing 4d political chess ultimately for altruistic reasons. Without that effect, it mostly seemed bad, it likely actually decreased the number of black voters, and did not decrease the south’s ability to filibuster the senate against civil rights (which was the main mechanism by which civil rights bills were unable to pass), eg they filibustered away another civil rights bill in 1959 or something. Plus, if not for Lyndon Johnson ultimately being pro-civil rights, it would have put someone decidedly anti-civil-rights into the presidency.
so it sounds like there’s basically no way anyone could have known that johnson would actually be a pro civil-rights president, and that all the civil rights people who were opposed to the 1957 bill at the time were basically opposed for the right reasons? like basically everything we know about johnson as of 1960 suggests that he is telling everyone what they want to hear and it’s unclear whether he has any convictions of his own except for his strong track record of defending the interests of the south.
Basically yes. His staff likely coulda predicted this (eg there were a few circumstances where out of anger he did some small civil rights stuff, then backed off when he cooled down & looked at the political repercussions), and possibly Lady Bird, but no other senator or member of the public had any reliable way to predict this for the reasons you state.
I mean, even in the Emmett Till Arlington case, which is what I assume you’re referring to, it seems really hard for his staff members to have known, without the benefit of hindsight, that this was any significant window into his true beliefs? I mean, johnson is famously good at working himself up into appearing to genuinely believe whatever is politically convenient at the moment, and he briefly miscalculated the costs of supporting civil rights in this case. his apparent genuineness in this case doesn’t seem like strong evidence.
It seems extremely net-positive for civil rights, but mainly through the mechanism of it making Lyndon Johnson a viable candidate for president while maintaining his stature with the southern democrats, leading ultimately to the Civil Rights Act of 1964.
This can be seen as a generalizable lesson only insofar as you think weak bills like that are typically passed by Lyndon Johnson-like figures playing 4d political chess ultimately for altruistic reasons. Without that effect, it mostly seemed bad, it likely actually decreased the number of black voters, and did not decrease the south’s ability to filibuster the senate against civil rights (which was the main mechanism by which civil rights bills were unable to pass), eg they filibustered away another civil rights bill in 1959 or something. Plus, if not for Lyndon Johnson ultimately being pro-civil rights, it would have put someone decidedly anti-civil-rights into the presidency.
so it sounds like there’s basically no way anyone could have known that johnson would actually be a pro civil-rights president, and that all the civil rights people who were opposed to the 1957 bill at the time were basically opposed for the right reasons? like basically everything we know about johnson as of 1960 suggests that he is telling everyone what they want to hear and it’s unclear whether he has any convictions of his own except for his strong track record of defending the interests of the south.
Basically yes. His staff likely coulda predicted this (eg there were a few circumstances where out of anger he did some small civil rights stuff, then backed off when he cooled down & looked at the political repercussions), and possibly Lady Bird, but no other senator or member of the public had any reliable way to predict this for the reasons you state.
I mean, even in the Emmett Till Arlington case, which is what I assume you’re referring to, it seems really hard for his staff members to have known, without the benefit of hindsight, that this was any significant window into his true beliefs? I mean, johnson is famously good at working himself up into appearing to genuinely believe whatever is politically convenient at the moment, and he briefly miscalculated the costs of supporting civil rights in this case. his apparent genuineness in this case doesn’t seem like strong evidence.