publicly registering a bet with Emmett Bicker: I predict that on February 16, 2027, there will be at least 3 people at one of openai/anthropic/GDM who work on kernels full time (or, a larger number of people spending part of their time working on kernels, such that the time spent adds up to 3 FTEs, capped at 50 people maximum). if all of these companies have gone bankrupt or pivoted heavily or cut their workforce substantially because of a market crash or AI winter, this resolves in my favor. if AI kills everyone or creates the glorious posthuman utopia before then, it resolves in Emmett’s favor (regardless of whether there are still people who do kernels work for fun).
publicly registering a bet with Emmett Bicker: I predict that on February 16, 2027, there will be at least 3 people at one of openai/anthropic/GDM who work on kernels full time (or, a larger number of people spending part of their time working on kernels, such that the time spent adds up to 3 FTEs, capped at 50 people maximum). if all of these companies have gone bankrupt or pivoted heavily or cut their workforce substantially because of a market crash or AI winter, this resolves in my favor. if AI kills everyone or creates the glorious posthuman utopia before then, it resolves in Emmett’s favor (regardless of whether there are still people who do kernels work for fun).