one way to observe some of this is to see what ways median lab people mispredict the world. for example, median lab people often underpredict capabilities progress and scary alignment failures. i think this is not a coincidene
To be fair, the capability mispredictions are shared by lots of other people, and suffice it to say that not even lab employees have abandoned normie priors on capabilities progress yet.
one way to observe some of this is to see what ways median lab people mispredict the world. for example, median lab people often underpredict capabilities progress and scary alignment failures. i think this is not a coincidene
To be fair, the capability mispredictions are shared by lots of other people, and suffice it to say that not even lab employees have abandoned normie priors on capabilities progress yet.