i’m happy to grant that the 0.1% is just a fermi estimate and there’s a +/- one OOM error bar around it. my point still basically stands even if it’s 1%.
i think there are also many factors in the other direction that just make it really hard to say whether 0.1% is an under or overestimate.
for example, market capitalization is generally an overestimate of value when there are very large holders. tesla is also a bit of a meme stock so it’s most likely trading above fundamental value.
my guess is most things sold to the public sector probably produce less economic value per $ than something sold to the private sector, so profit overestimates value produced
the sign on net economic value of his political advocacy seems very unclear to me. the answer depends strongly on some political beliefs that i don’t feel like arguing out right now.
it slightly complicates my analogy for elon to be both the richest person in the us and also possibly the most influential (or one of). in my comment i am mostly referring to economic-elon. you are possibly making some arguments about influentialness in general. the problem is that influentialness is harder to estimate. also, if we’re talking about influentialness in general, we don’t get to use the 0.1% ownership of economic output as a lower bound of influentialness. owning x% of economic output doesn’t automatically give you x% of influentialness. (i think the majority of other extremely rich people are not nearly as influential as elon per $)
i’m happy to grant that the 0.1% is just a fermi estimate and there’s a +/- one OOM error bar around it. my point still basically stands even if it’s 1%.
i think there are also many factors in the other direction that just make it really hard to say whether 0.1% is an under or overestimate.
for example, market capitalization is generally an overestimate of value when there are very large holders. tesla is also a bit of a meme stock so it’s most likely trading above fundamental value.
my guess is most things sold to the public sector probably produce less economic value per $ than something sold to the private sector, so profit overestimates value produced
the sign on net economic value of his political advocacy seems very unclear to me. the answer depends strongly on some political beliefs that i don’t feel like arguing out right now.
it slightly complicates my analogy for elon to be both the richest person in the us and also possibly the most influential (or one of). in my comment i am mostly referring to economic-elon. you are possibly making some arguments about influentialness in general. the problem is that influentialness is harder to estimate. also, if we’re talking about influentialness in general, we don’t get to use the 0.1% ownership of economic output as a lower bound of influentialness. owning x% of economic output doesn’t automatically give you x% of influentialness. (i think the majority of other extremely rich people are not nearly as influential as elon per $)