Metaculus 2020 U.S. Election Risks Survey doesn’t give >1% for >5000 deaths, but I think it is justified to infer something like that from it:
While large-scale violence and military intervention to quell civil unrest seem unlikely, experts still judged these possibilities to be far from remote. Experts predicted a median of 60 deaths occurring due to election-related violence, with an 80% confidence interval of 0 to 912 fatalities that reflects a high degree of uncertainty. Still, the real possibility of violence is a notable departure from the peaceful transitions that have been the hallmark of past U.S. elections. Results indicate an 8% probability of over 1,000 election-related deaths — suggesting that while widespread sustained clashes are unlikely, this possibility warrants real concern. Experts assigned a 10% median prediction that President Trump will invoke the Insurrection Act to mobilize troops during the transition period.
Metaculus 2020 U.S. Election Risks Survey doesn’t give >1% for >5000 deaths, but I think it is justified to infer something like that from it: