What I consider to be a more likely hypothesis: they have to tell investors something that sounds sane to investors, so they are giving them an in-distribution prediction based on the performance of past companies. OpenAI might not believe it, but investors will, and that’s all that matters in for the purposes of why they are making these projections.
What I consider to be a more likely hypothesis: they have to tell investors something that sounds sane to investors, so they are giving them an in-distribution prediction based on the performance of past companies. OpenAI might not believe it, but investors will, and that’s all that matters in for the purposes of why they are making these projections.