That is to say there are intermediate stages between “AI is useless as anything other than a tool” to “AI can completely replace all knowledge workers”. Given how fast capabilities are growing (METR’s results on this suggest practicable task lengths double every 4-6 months), these intermediate stages will be shortish...
I agree with this, but I expect these intermediate stages to be in the past by 2030. E.g. in “Measuring AI Ability to Complete Long Tasks” METR predicts (see “A sensitivity analysis of the extrapolated date...” graph) that in 2027-2031 AI will be able to perform with 50% success rate tasks taking a human 1 work-month. Even when AI can do tasks equivalent to 1 day of work, there is a huge incentive to use it. If we assume task duration doubling every 7 months, 1 work-day = 8 work-hours should be reached in 2 years.
I agree with this, but I expect these intermediate stages to be in the past by 2030. E.g. in “Measuring AI Ability to Complete Long Tasks” METR predicts (see “A sensitivity analysis of the extrapolated date...” graph) that in 2027-2031 AI will be able to perform with 50% success rate tasks taking a human 1 work-month. Even when AI can do tasks equivalent to 1 day of work, there is a huge incentive to use it. If we assume task duration doubling every 7 months, 1 work-day = 8 work-hours should be reached in 2 years.