Probably the only important thing to say was how they screwed me on a swine flu bet. I bet that it would reach (IIRC) 10,000 cases in the US by the end of June ’09. The bet specified that it would be determined by something like “the best estimates available at the time, as reported in major media sources”. Then CDC decided to quit updating its current estimate two weeks before the deadline (while still below 10k), InTrade ruled that it could take the CDC’s last update as the determinant, and so it ended the contract at zero (i.e. against me). This was despite all mainstream sources at the time reporting a confirmed count over 10k by the deadline.
Probably the only important thing to say was how they screwed me on a swine flu bet. I bet that it would reach (IIRC) 10,000 cases in the US by the end of June ’09. The bet specified that it would be determined by something like “the best estimates available at the time, as reported in major media sources”. Then CDC decided to quit updating its current estimate two weeks before the deadline (while still below 10k), InTrade ruled that it could take the CDC’s last update as the determinant, and so it ended the contract at zero (i.e. against me). This was despite all mainstream sources at the time reporting a confirmed count over 10k by the deadline.