why does a claim with the same logical structure, such as ”this drug is safe because we have no evidence that it is not”, seem more plausible?
Whoa whoa whoa WHOA whoa whoa. If you find a pill on a table, taped to a copy of that argument, DO NOT TAKE THE PILL.
I disagree with this post because it totally ignores the whole “therefore” part of these fallacies. This note says there isn’t any evidence that the pill is unsafe (true), therefore you should take it if I offered you a dollar (false). There was an experiment that demonstrated psychic powers (true), therefore you should behave as if humans have psychic powers (false).
What’s wrong with these examples? In the case of the pill, the “therefore” is not merited by the preceding argument—you should not take the pill, it’s a simple fact about most peoples’ utility functions vis a vis anaphylactic shock. It’s not about whether the evidence is weak or strong, the truth of the argument is a well-defined truth value of a claim made about the evidence. The second argument ignores the mountains of evidence that we have no psychic powers. The “therefore” that you should act upon has to be based off of all the evidence, which then has to pass certain marks in order to merit terms like “exists” or “safe for human consumption.” Trying to ignore some of the evidence when setting up peoples’ “therefores” isn’t weak evidence, it’s lying.
In the section on circularity, I felt that you were a bit blinded by the fact that electrons actually do exist. The argument about cloud chambers is even more circular than the argument for God. I think it’s just that “and therefore, I win the argument and you should all pray facing Mecca” happens to be a false statement about what it takes to convince people of the correctness of a particular religion.
Whoa whoa whoa WHOA whoa whoa. If you find a pill on a table, taped to a copy of that argument, DO NOT TAKE THE PILL.
I disagree with this post because it totally ignores the whole “therefore” part of these fallacies. This note says there isn’t any evidence that the pill is unsafe (true), therefore you should take it if I offered you a dollar (false). There was an experiment that demonstrated psychic powers (true), therefore you should behave as if humans have psychic powers (false).
What’s wrong with these examples? In the case of the pill, the “therefore” is not merited by the preceding argument—you should not take the pill, it’s a simple fact about most peoples’ utility functions vis a vis anaphylactic shock. It’s not about whether the evidence is weak or strong, the truth of the argument is a well-defined truth value of a claim made about the evidence. The second argument ignores the mountains of evidence that we have no psychic powers. The “therefore” that you should act upon has to be based off of all the evidence, which then has to pass certain marks in order to merit terms like “exists” or “safe for human consumption.” Trying to ignore some of the evidence when setting up peoples’ “therefores” isn’t weak evidence, it’s lying.
In the section on circularity, I felt that you were a bit blinded by the fact that electrons actually do exist. The argument about cloud chambers is even more circular than the argument for God. I think it’s just that “and therefore, I win the argument and you should all pray facing Mecca” happens to be a false statement about what it takes to convince people of the correctness of a particular religion.