For sake of argument we say that the plant requires a rare and unstable isotope to get started. Earth’s entire supply is contained in the plant and will decay in 24 hours.
I could also ask you a similar dilemma, but this time there is only one theory which acknowledges that whether the plant works or creates a black hole depends on a single quantum event, which has a 50% chance of going either way. What do you do? If you wouldn’t launch I can ask the same question but now there’s only a 25% chance of a black hole, and so on until I learn the ratio of the utility values that you assign to “post scarcity future” and “extinction of humanity”. This might for example tell me that the chance of a black hole has to be less than 30% for you to press the button.
Then I ask you the original dilemma, and learn whether the probability you assign to theory X is above or below 70%. If I have far too much time on my hands I can keep modifying the dilemma with slightly altered pay-offs until I pinpoint your estimate.
For sake of argument we say that the plant requires a rare and unstable isotope to get started. Earth’s entire supply is contained in the plant and will decay in 24 hours.
I could also ask you a similar dilemma, but this time there is only one theory which acknowledges that whether the plant works or creates a black hole depends on a single quantum event, which has a 50% chance of going either way. What do you do? If you wouldn’t launch I can ask the same question but now there’s only a 25% chance of a black hole, and so on until I learn the ratio of the utility values that you assign to “post scarcity future” and “extinction of humanity”. This might for example tell me that the chance of a black hole has to be less than 30% for you to press the button.
Then I ask you the original dilemma, and learn whether the probability you assign to theory X is above or below 70%. If I have far too much time on my hands I can keep modifying the dilemma with slightly altered pay-offs until I pinpoint your estimate.
I suppose you get that when the container containing the black dye explodes....
Damn, I made that mistake every single time I typed it and I thought I’d corrected them all.