Of course, the best proportion would be 100% of people telling me that p(the_warming)=85%;
but if we limit the outside opinions to simple yes/no statements, then having 85% telling ‘yes’ and 15% telling ‘no’ seems to be far more informative than 100% of people telling ‘yes’ - as that would lead me to very wrongly assume that p(the_warming) is the same as p(2+2=4).
Why not?
Of course, the best proportion would be 100% of people telling me that p(the_warming)=85%; but if we limit the outside opinions to simple yes/no statements, then having 85% telling ‘yes’ and 15% telling ‘no’ seems to be far more informative than 100% of people telling ‘yes’ - as that would lead me to very wrongly assume that p(the_warming) is the same as p(2+2=4).
Why?