OK, so guessing anything at all is optional. And I’m not sure how to score things like ‘the child is not AaBB’, which is a guess, but not very specific. And your guess on the parents—do you score that again after every child? If you get it wrong, are you allowed to guess something else and get it right later on?
Aside from that, given all that you’ve said, it seems like it’s going to be really hard to get any useful information from watching anyone else’s score—you need to model their decision process for which things to guess, in order for their score to tell you anything at all, and those are underspecified.
Also, even Oriss can hide his predictions even better if he makes more than two at once. If, say, he holds off on one for a turn and bundles it with another (I’m assuming that delaying doesn’t help—do you get to ‘guess’ the same thing more than once so there’s a reason to make your parental guesses explicit early?).
I’ll try to rewrite it in a sufficiently specified way (right now I don’t have an idea how). They can’t make totally unclear predictions, or Burr is not going to collect enough points. Oriss is going to lose points after the third round. Burr will try to ‘screw around’, guessing that one parent is AaBb, and will not get or lose any points for it, although he will stay in the game.
OK, so guessing anything at all is optional. And I’m not sure how to score things like ‘the child is not AaBB’, which is a guess, but not very specific. And your guess on the parents—do you score that again after every child? If you get it wrong, are you allowed to guess something else and get it right later on?
Aside from that, given all that you’ve said, it seems like it’s going to be really hard to get any useful information from watching anyone else’s score—you need to model their decision process for which things to guess, in order for their score to tell you anything at all, and those are underspecified.
Also, even Oriss can hide his predictions even better if he makes more than two at once. If, say, he holds off on one for a turn and bundles it with another (I’m assuming that delaying doesn’t help—do you get to ‘guess’ the same thing more than once so there’s a reason to make your parental guesses explicit early?).
I’ll try to rewrite it in a sufficiently specified way (right now I don’t have an idea how). They can’t make totally unclear predictions, or Burr is not going to collect enough points. Oriss is going to lose points after the third round. Burr will try to ‘screw around’, guessing that one parent is AaBb, and will not get or lose any points for it, although he will stay in the game.