I think the point of Bio Anchors was to give a big upper bound, and not say this is exactly when it will happen. At least that is how I perceive it. People who might be at a 101 level still probably have the impression that capabilities heavy AI is like multiple decades if not centuries away. The reason I have bio anchors here, is to try to point towards the fact that we have quite likely at most until 2048. Then based on that upper bound we can scale back further.
I think the point of Bio Anchors was to give a big upper bound, and not say this is exactly when it will happen. At least that is how I perceive it. People who might be at a 101 level still probably have the impression that capabilities heavy AI is like multiple decades if not centuries away. The reason I have bio anchors here, is to try to point towards the fact that we have quite likely at most until 2048. Then based on that upper bound we can scale back further.
We have the recent OpenAI report that extends bio anchors—What a compute-centric framework says about takeoff speeds (https://www.openphilanthropy.org/research/what-a-compute-centric-framework-says-about-takeoff-speeds/). There is a comment under meta-notes that mentioned that I plan to include updates to timelines and takeoff in a future draft based on this report.