human marginal productivity increases, and we get wealthier, so wages might plausible go up for a while,
Why would wages go up? Employers have zero reason to pass the improved productivity gains to the employees, especially in a situation with mass layoffs creating lots of free labor to replace any employees upset about this. Previous gains in productivity have not increased wages, especially in modern (post 2000~) times. If anything, increased productivity allows companies to layoff employees, reducing overall wages.
Overall, the obsession with things like ‘wages’ around high automation is incredibly strange to me and assigns a huge amount of benevolence to the companies and people running them. I don’t think that capitalism, automation, and human flourishing for anyone who doesn’t own one of these companies are compatible, and I think we’re likely to see huge loss of life or upheaval closer to 20% automation, or even less.
Why would wages go up? Employers have zero reason to pass the improved productivity gains to the employees, especially in a situation with mass layoffs creating lots of free labor to replace any employees upset about this. Previous gains in productivity have not increased wages, especially in modern (post 2000~) times. If anything, increased productivity allows companies to layoff employees, reducing overall wages.
Overall, the obsession with things like ‘wages’ around high automation is incredibly strange to me and assigns a huge amount of benevolence to the companies and people running them. I don’t think that capitalism, automation, and human flourishing for anyone who doesn’t own one of these companies are compatible, and I think we’re likely to see huge loss of life or upheaval closer to 20% automation, or even less.