From a surivey linked from that article (that that article cherry-picks a single number from… sigh). It looks like there is a disconnect between theorists and practitioners with theorists being more likely to believe in hard take off (theorists think we have a 15% chance likely that we will get super intelligence within 2 years of human intelligence and practitioners a 5%).
I think you would find nuclear physicists giving a higher probability in the idea of chain reactions pretty quickly once a realistic pathway that released 2 neutrons was shown.
mostly dealing with emphasis instead of content.
MIRI/FHI has captured the market for worrying about AI. If they are worrying about the wrong things, that could be pretty bad.
From a surivey linked from that article (that that article cherry-picks a single number from… sigh). It looks like there is a disconnect between theorists and practitioners with theorists being more likely to believe in hard take off (theorists think we have a 15% chance likely that we will get super intelligence within 2 years of human intelligence and practitioners a 5%).
I think you would find nuclear physicists giving a higher probability in the idea of chain reactions pretty quickly once a realistic pathway that released 2 neutrons was shown.
MIRI/FHI has captured the market for worrying about AI. If they are worrying about the wrong things, that could be pretty bad.