I’m imagining the first marginal unit of effort, which you’d apply to the most likely possibility. Its expected impact is reduced by that highest probability.
If you get unlucky, then your actual impact might be radically lower than if you had known what to work on.
Thanks for the clarification! Now I understand where the value comes from.
However, in such a situation, would we only work on the most likely possibility? I agree that a single person does better by concentrating. But a group of researchers would work on each of the more likely approaches in order to mitigate risk.
I’m imagining the first marginal unit of effort, which you’d apply to the most likely possibility. Its expected impact is reduced by that highest probability.
If you get unlucky, then your actual impact might be radically lower than if you had known what to work on.
Thanks for the clarification! Now I understand where the value comes from.
However, in such a situation, would we only work on the most likely possibility? I agree that a single person does better by concentrating. But a group of researchers would work on each of the more likely approaches in order to mitigate risk.