Imagine someone tells you that the winning lottery numbers were 18-24-27-42-43 / 34. There’s only a one in 175,223,510 chance that those are actually the lottery numbers that won. Since there’s more than a one in 175,223,510 that they’re lying, it might seem at first that you should conclude that they’re lying. But lying explains all 175,223,510 possibilities equally. If they lie, there’s still only a one in 175,223,510 chance that they’d say those numbers. So it’s not evidence one way or the other.
It seems to me this is only true if you have no idea about what usually motivates people to lie. From experience not pertaining to lottery I’d say it’s more likely for someone to lie if they know the lottery number than lie if they don’t know the lottery number.
It seems to me this is only true if you have no idea about what usually motivates people to lie. From experience not pertaining to lottery I’d say it’s more likely for someone to lie if they know the lottery number than lie if they don’t know the lottery number.