I think ‘being a better Bayesian’ isn’t about deciding to be Einstein. I think it’s about being willing to believe things that aren’t ‘settled science’, where ‘settled science’ is the replicated and established knowledge of humanity as a whole. See Science Doesn’t Trust Your Rationality.
The true art is being able to do this without ending up a New Ager, or something. The virtue isn’t believing non-settled things. The virtue is being willing to go beyond what science currently believes, if that’s where the properly adjusted evidence actually points you. (I say ‘beyond’ because I mean to refer to scope. If science believes something, you had better believe it—but if science doesn’t have a strong opinion about something you have no choice but to use your rationality).
I think ‘being a better Bayesian’ isn’t about deciding to be Einstein. I think it’s about being willing to believe things that aren’t ‘settled science’, where ‘settled science’ is the replicated and established knowledge of humanity as a whole. See Science Doesn’t Trust Your Rationality.
The true art is being able to do this without ending up a New Ager, or something. The virtue isn’t believing non-settled things. The virtue is being willing to go beyond what science currently believes, if that’s where the properly adjusted evidence actually points you. (I say ‘beyond’ because I mean to refer to scope. If science believes something, you had better believe it—but if science doesn’t have a strong opinion about something you have no choice but to use your rationality).