I mostly agree with this, with one reservation about the “mainstream science is too slow” argument.
If we understood as much about a field as scientists, then we could do better using Bayes. But, I think it’s very rare that a layman could out-predict a scientist just using Bayes without studying the field to the point where they could write a paper in that field.
I mostly agree with this, with one reservation about the “mainstream science is too slow” argument.
If we understood as much about a field as scientists, then we could do better using Bayes. But, I think it’s very rare that a layman could out-predict a scientist just using Bayes without studying the field to the point where they could write a paper in that field.