I send the owl back to Wakalix with all of his 200 gp and the following letter attached
Dear Wakalix the Wizard,
Unfortunately, the items that are currently sold by the caravans, can’t provide 120 mana for 200 gp.
If you are in dire need of 120 mana, please provide me 300 gp instead of 200 gp.
Explanation:
I fit auto-sklearn to the training data, got 7.44 mana mean absolute error and got the following predictions for the test data:
item
enchantment
refinement
color
thaum
y_pred
price
y_pred/price
Longsword
Wounding
2
red
14
24.8726
66
0.376857
Warhammer
Justice
1
yellow
5
18.6423
41
0.454691
Hammer
Capability
0
blue
35
12.0596
35
0.344561
Pendant
Truth
0
red
40
12.0792
38
0.317874
Ring
Joy
5
blue
29
17.9164
32
0.559888
Warhammer
Flame
2
yellow
48
20.3161
65
0.312555
Battleaxe
Glory
0
blue
7
8.35728
23
0.36336
Plough
Plenty
0
yellow
12
19.5171
35
0.557631
Saw
Capability
1
green
16
19.4064
35
0.554468
Amulet
Wounding
2
green
50
23.8462
35
0.681319
Pendant
Hope
0
blue
77
13.0694
34
0.384395
Pendant
Joy
4
green
42
29.5016
39
0.756451
From these predictions (the y_pred column), it seems I can’t get 120 mana for 200 gp. I could get about 110 mana by buying Amulet of Wounding +2, Pendant of Joy +4, Ring of Joy +5, Plough of Plenty, Saw of Capability +1 for 176 gp. If I had a little bit more gold, I could add Warhammer of Justic +1, that’ll be approximately 129 mana for 217 gp, but that would be risky, I could easily end up indebted to Wakalix.
After reading other comments I was surprised. I wondered if auto_sklearn gave such bad estimates because I encoded categorical features myself in a way which is not very suitable for it. I wanted to see if I can tinker with it to get it to give me a better answer. I let it choose how to encode categorical features on its own. I got a better mean absolute error and got predictions, which are very different for Hammer of Capability, Pendant of Truth, Ring of Joy, Pendant of Hope:
item
enchantment
refinement
color
thaum
y_pred
price
y_pred/price
Longsword
Wounding
2
red
14
27.306131
66
0.413729
Warhammer
Justice
1
yellow
5
19.637162
41
0.478955
Hammer
Capability
0
blue
35
30.566119
35
0.873318
Pendant
Truth
0
red
40
22.123613
38
0.582200
Ring
Joy
5
blue
29
6.358711
32
0.198710
Warhammer
Flame
2
yellow
48
20.296373
65
0.312252
Battleaxe
Glory
0
blue
7
6.949717
23
0.302162
Plough
Plenty
0
yellow
12
19.923753
35
0.569250
Saw
Capability
1
green
16
18.042059
35
0.515487
Amulet
Wounding
2
green
50
22.919911
35
0.654855
Pendant
Hope
0
blue
77
54.058931
34
1.589969
Pendant
Joy
4
green
42
25.158531
39
0.645091
With these new predictions, I think I can buy Pendant of Hope, Hammer of Capability, Amulet of Wounding, Pendant of Joy, and Pendant of Truth to get approximately 154.83 mana for 181 gold. That’s what I do. Although I understand that this is cheating, since I’ve seen other people’s answers.
Solution:
I send the owl back to Wakalix with all of his 200 gp and the following letter attached
Explanation:
I fit auto-sklearn to the training data, got 7.44 mana mean absolute error and got the following predictions for the test data:
From these predictions (the
y_pred
column), it seems I can’t get 120 mana for 200 gp. I could get about 110 mana by buying Amulet of Wounding +2, Pendant of Joy +4, Ring of Joy +5, Plough of Plenty, Saw of Capability +1 for 176 gp. If I had a little bit more gold, I could add Warhammer of Justic +1, that’ll be approximately 129 mana for 217 gp, but that would be risky, I could easily end up indebted to Wakalix.Welp, I spent five minutes plus trying to switch to the markdown editor to fix my spoilers and failed. Giving up now.
After reading other comments I was surprised. I wondered if
auto_sklearn
gave such bad estimates because I encoded categorical features myself in a way which is not very suitable for it. I wanted to see if I can tinker with it to get it to give me a better answer. I let it choose how to encode categorical features on its own. I got a better mean absolute error and got predictions, which are very different for Hammer of Capability, Pendant of Truth, Ring of Joy, Pendant of Hope:With these new predictions, I think I can buy Pendant of Hope, Hammer of Capability, Amulet of Wounding, Pendant of Joy, and Pendant of Truth to get approximately 154.83 mana for 181 gold. That’s what I do. Although I understand that this is cheating, since I’ve seen other people’s answers.