No, not quite; if this list is correct, I was wrong about what G/A claims.
You are a uniformly sampled observer-moment (according to my model). That means you should have a master list of all instances that could implement this moment and then assume you’re sampled from those. This is in fact the beginning and end of my model. To make this more manageable, you can assume your memories from the last five minutes are accurate,[1] and then draw a slightly larger box, i.e., “I’m a randomly sampled 5-minute segment”.
Applying this:
I agree with #2 because you see that you live in a civilization with 7∗1010 people, not one with 1020
Ditto #3.
Ditto #4, you’re not randomly sampled out of people who live early and late because you see that you live early. The question for doomsday is whether a universe where lots of civilizations go extinct makes it more likely to see that you’re early (plus everything else you see), and I don’t see why it would.
So the way I disagree with #1 is similar; we can see that we’re early in the history of the universe. If GA relies on ignorance on that point (right now I can’t figure out from memory if it does), I probably disagree with it. I guess I’ll come back to this when I reread the paper or at least the video.
This goes wrong iff you are a Boltzman brain or something similar, which my model is perfectly happy to treat as coherent possibility, but Boltzman brains are extremely complex, so this should not give you a lot of moments.
No, not quite; if this list is correct, I was wrong about what G/A claims.
You are a uniformly sampled observer-moment (according to my model). That means you should have a master list of all instances that could implement this moment and then assume you’re sampled from those. This is in fact the beginning and end of my model. To make this more manageable, you can assume your memories from the last five minutes are accurate,[1] and then draw a slightly larger box, i.e., “I’m a randomly sampled 5-minute segment”.
Applying this:
I agree with #2 because you see that you live in a civilization with 7∗1010 people, not one with 1020
Ditto #3.
Ditto #4, you’re not randomly sampled out of people who live early and late because you see that you live early. The question for doomsday is whether a universe where lots of civilizations go extinct makes it more likely to see that you’re early (plus everything else you see), and I don’t see why it would.
So the way I disagree with #1 is similar; we can see that we’re early in the history of the universe. If GA relies on ignorance on that point (right now I can’t figure out from memory if it does), I probably disagree with it. I guess I’ll come back to this when I reread the paper or at least the video.
This goes wrong iff you are a Boltzman brain or something similar, which my model is perfectly happy to treat as coherent possibility, but Boltzman brains are extremely complex, so this should not give you a lot of moments.