If “belief” equals greater than fifty percent, no, I wouldn’t believe them. But it would raise my probability estimate. By the tenth such (credible) person, it would raise my probability estimate a lot. So by conservation of expected evidence, the lack of such people can validly lower my probability estimate.
If “belief” equals greater than fifty percent, no, I wouldn’t believe them. But it would raise my probability estimate. By the tenth such (credible) person, it would raise my probability estimate a lot. So by conservation of expected evidence, the lack of such people can validly lower my probability estimate.