Does your idea of “individual actions” exclude such cooperation?
Changing people’s minds is hard. If your plans involve convincing other people to believe the same things as you then you face a difficult problem. The more people you need to convince the harder the problem is. As I said in my reply to thomblake, if you plan to be more convincing using the same evidence as the people who have already been trying unsuccessfully to make the case then you have a difficult problem. We are not talking about a situation where some new incontrovertible evidence comes to light that makes you believe—in that case others are likely to be swayed by the new evidence as well. We are talking about situations where you are changing your mind based on researching information that already exists.
I just brainstormed for five minutes and came up with nine things I could do towards the goal of reforming or overthrowing the government in a 9/11 conspiracy scenario, and I believe that there would be a decent chance of success.
At any given time there are many people working towards the goal of reforming or overthrowing governments. What makes you think you have come up with a better plan in 5 minutes of thinking than all of the people who are already dedicated to such goals?
It’s just too easy to throw up your hands and say, “There’s nothing worthwhile I can do to solve this problem” if you haven’t tried to find out if the problem actually exists.
I prefer problems whose solution does not require convincing large numbers of other people to change their minds. Maximizing the expected value of your actions requires considering both the value of the outcome and the probability of success.
What makes you think you have come up with a better plan in 5 minutes of thinking than all of the people who are already dedicated to such goals?
Presumably, I’d have the Truth on my side, as well as the Will of the American People, as soon as I’d convinced them. And in this counterfactual I still believe that most 9/11 Truthers are lunatics, or not very smart, so their failure to be taken seriously isn’t very discouraging.
Changing people’s beliefs is indeed hard, and so is getting people to do things; but it’s not impossible. The successful civil rights movements provide historical examples. Examples of problems we still face include stopping genocide, protecting human rights, preventing catastrophic climate change, and mitigating existential risks. Some of these problems are already hard enough without the necessity of having to convince lots of obstinate people that their beliefs are incorrect or that they need to take action. But it seems to me the payoffs are worth enough to do something about them.
You don’t have to agree. Maybe if you came to believe the 9/11 Truthers, you wouldn’t do anything differently. In that case, you have no motive to even have a belief on the matter. But if I learned about a crazy-huge problem that no one is doing anything about, I’d ask “What can we do to solve this problem?”
But if I learned about a crazy-huge problem that no one is doing anything about, I’d ask “What can we do to solve this problem?”
Perhaps the difference in attitude is our prior beliefs regarding governments and politicians. If I learned that 9/11 was a conspiracy I wouldn’t be shocked to discover that government / politicians are morally worse than I thought, I would be shocked to discover that they were more competent and more omnipotent than I thought. It sounds like you would interpret things differently.
I would be shocked to discover that they were more competent and more omnipotent than I thought.
Ah, we’re in agreement on this point. We are perhaps fortunate that our political leaders can’t help but make fools of themselves, individually and collectively, on a regular basis. A political entity that could actually fool everyone all of the time would be way too scary.
Changing people’s minds is hard. If your plans involve convincing other people to believe the same things as you then you face a difficult problem. The more people you need to convince the harder the problem is. As I said in my reply to thomblake, if you plan to be more convincing using the same evidence as the people who have already been trying unsuccessfully to make the case then you have a difficult problem. We are not talking about a situation where some new incontrovertible evidence comes to light that makes you believe—in that case others are likely to be swayed by the new evidence as well. We are talking about situations where you are changing your mind based on researching information that already exists.
At any given time there are many people working towards the goal of reforming or overthrowing governments. What makes you think you have come up with a better plan in 5 minutes of thinking than all of the people who are already dedicated to such goals?
I prefer problems whose solution does not require convincing large numbers of other people to change their minds. Maximizing the expected value of your actions requires considering both the value of the outcome and the probability of success.
Presumably, I’d have the Truth on my side, as well as the Will of the American People, as soon as I’d convinced them. And in this counterfactual I still believe that most 9/11 Truthers are lunatics, or not very smart, so their failure to be taken seriously isn’t very discouraging.
Changing people’s beliefs is indeed hard, and so is getting people to do things; but it’s not impossible. The successful civil rights movements provide historical examples. Examples of problems we still face include stopping genocide, protecting human rights, preventing catastrophic climate change, and mitigating existential risks. Some of these problems are already hard enough without the necessity of having to convince lots of obstinate people that their beliefs are incorrect or that they need to take action. But it seems to me the payoffs are worth enough to do something about them.
You don’t have to agree. Maybe if you came to believe the 9/11 Truthers, you wouldn’t do anything differently. In that case, you have no motive to even have a belief on the matter. But if I learned about a crazy-huge problem that no one is doing anything about, I’d ask “What can we do to solve this problem?”
Perhaps the difference in attitude is our prior beliefs regarding governments and politicians. If I learned that 9/11 was a conspiracy I wouldn’t be shocked to discover that government / politicians are morally worse than I thought, I would be shocked to discover that they were more competent and more omnipotent than I thought. It sounds like you would interpret things differently.
Ah, we’re in agreement on this point. We are perhaps fortunate that our political leaders can’t help but make fools of themselves, individually and collectively, on a regular basis. A political entity that could actually fool everyone all of the time would be way too scary.