>(Okay, yes, it’s Bayesian evidence, but it’s not very strong evidence)
I think it’s stronger than you’re making it out to be, although i’m not entirely confident i can state the case well. It’s something like… insofar as the claim is that evaluators are independent, they really aren’t. it’s all the same big social cluster, with similar beliefs and worldviews
evaluators really ought to minimize conflict of interest. if you’re already in the scene, then there’s sorta a sense in which it feels like the scene is all there is? or at least, i feel this sometimes. but it really would be better if there were some evaluation firms that were not so… part of the in-group of the social vibe inside the ai labs. if some random research team formed a competent evaluation organization that was entirely disconnected from that in-group, it would probably be a very good thing.
and if you’ve already got this mindset, then learning that christiano and amodei were housemates in the past is very strong evidence that aisi does not meet this higher bar for being truly independent of the ai labs
>(Okay, yes, it’s Bayesian evidence, but it’s not very strong evidence)
I think it’s stronger than you’re making it out to be, although i’m not entirely confident i can state the case well. It’s something like… insofar as the claim is that evaluators are independent, they really aren’t. it’s all the same big social cluster, with similar beliefs and worldviews
evaluators really ought to minimize conflict of interest. if you’re already in the scene, then there’s sorta a sense in which it feels like the scene is all there is? or at least, i feel this sometimes. but it really would be better if there were some evaluation firms that were not so… part of the in-group of the social vibe inside the ai labs. if some random research team formed a competent evaluation organization that was entirely disconnected from that in-group, it would probably be a very good thing.
and if you’ve already got this mindset, then learning that christiano and amodei were housemates in the past is very strong evidence that aisi does not meet this higher bar for being truly independent of the ai labs