It seems to me that there’s two different hidden questions pointed at by “Was this decision ethical”, and depending on why you’re asking you come up with different answers.
If you’re asking “Was this the correct choice”, you want to know if from the perspective of perfect knowledge, how close to optimal was this action, which corresponds fairly closely to actual result (though there’s complications with MWI, and possibly some other parts of the large universe. Or maybe that goes away if you swap out perfect knowledge for something more like “from the perspective of the observer after the event”, in which case the ethical status of a decision can be literally physically undefined until some time after the decision is made?). However, a lot of the time what you’re actually asking is “How does this choice impact my assessment of a person’s ability to make correct choices”, in which case you’re just interested in knowing whether the choice made using a method which reliably produces correct choices (which includes things like gathering relevant information on probability before remortgaging your house and blowing it on lottery tickets).
The first question is relatively easy to judge since you have evidence on how well a decision went, though lack of knowing the results other options gives some uncertainty, but does not provide useful information about trustworthiness of a person in general. The second seems much more useful since it should relate better to future behaviour, but is basically impossible to even approach quantifying in any realistically complicated situation. So.. you ask the first question, trying to get evidence about the second which is what you usually want to know?
If, once you know whether a decision in the past was correct (with reference to whatever morals you pick), and whether the method used to make that decision generally produces correct decisions, you still feel the need to ask “but was it really ethical”, it looks like a disguised query.
It seems to me that there’s two different hidden questions pointed at by “Was this decision ethical”, and depending on why you’re asking you come up with different answers.
If you’re asking “Was this the correct choice”, you want to know if from the perspective of perfect knowledge, how close to optimal was this action, which corresponds fairly closely to actual result (though there’s complications with MWI, and possibly some other parts of the large universe. Or maybe that goes away if you swap out perfect knowledge for something more like “from the perspective of the observer after the event”, in which case the ethical status of a decision can be literally physically undefined until some time after the decision is made?). However, a lot of the time what you’re actually asking is “How does this choice impact my assessment of a person’s ability to make correct choices”, in which case you’re just interested in knowing whether the choice made using a method which reliably produces correct choices (which includes things like gathering relevant information on probability before remortgaging your house and blowing it on lottery tickets).
The first question is relatively easy to judge since you have evidence on how well a decision went, though lack of knowing the results other options gives some uncertainty, but does not provide useful information about trustworthiness of a person in general. The second seems much more useful since it should relate better to future behaviour, but is basically impossible to even approach quantifying in any realistically complicated situation. So.. you ask the first question, trying to get evidence about the second which is what you usually want to know?
If, once you know whether a decision in the past was correct (with reference to whatever morals you pick), and whether the method used to make that decision generally produces correct decisions, you still feel the need to ask “but was it really ethical”, it looks like a disguised query.