True: you will probably never be in the epistemic state in which you will justifiably believe you are in Newcomb’s problem. Nevertheless, you will frequently be in probabilistic variants of the problem, and a sane decision theory that wins on those cases will have the implication that it should one-box when you take the limit of all variables as they go to what they need to be to make it the literal Newcomb’s problem.
True: you will probably never be in the epistemic state in which you will justifiably believe you are in Newcomb’s problem. Nevertheless, you will frequently be in probabilistic variants of the problem, and a sane decision theory that wins on those cases will have the implication that it should one-box when you take the limit of all variables as they go to what they need to be to make it the literal Newcomb’s problem.