There’s also a question about cross-domain transferability of good takes.
Agreed. That isn’t a difference between contributing “considerations” and “predictions” (using Habryka’s reported distinction). There are people who contribute good analysis about geopolitics. Others contribute good analysis about ML innovations. Does that transfer to analysis about AGI / ASI? Time will tell—mostly when it’s already too late. We will try anyway.
In terms of predicting the AI revolution an important consideration is what will happen to power. Will it be widely or narrowly distributed? How much will be retained by humans? More importantly, can we act in the world to change any of this? These are similar to geopolitical questions, so I welcome analysis and forecasts from people with a proven track record in geopolitics.
The industrial revolution is a good parallel. Nobody in 1760 (let alone 1400) predicted the detailed impacts of the industrial revolution. Some people predicted that population and economic growth would increase. Adam Smith had some insights into power shifts (Claude adds Benjamin Franklin, François Quesnay and James Steuart). That’s about the best I expect to see for the AI revolution. It’s not nothing.
Agreed. That isn’t a difference between contributing “considerations” and “predictions” (using Habryka’s reported distinction). There are people who contribute good analysis about geopolitics. Others contribute good analysis about ML innovations. Does that transfer to analysis about AGI / ASI? Time will tell—mostly when it’s already too late. We will try anyway.
In terms of predicting the AI revolution an important consideration is what will happen to power. Will it be widely or narrowly distributed? How much will be retained by humans? More importantly, can we act in the world to change any of this? These are similar to geopolitical questions, so I welcome analysis and forecasts from people with a proven track record in geopolitics.
The industrial revolution is a good parallel. Nobody in 1760 (let alone 1400) predicted the detailed impacts of the industrial revolution. Some people predicted that population and economic growth would increase. Adam Smith had some insights into power shifts (Claude adds Benjamin Franklin, François Quesnay and James Steuart). That’s about the best I expect to see for the AI revolution. It’s not nothing.