We haven’t yet seen the efficiency fallout of the 2022-2030 rapid scaling, and semi advancements take many years. So if some kind of experience curve effect wakes up as a central factor in semi efficiency, then 2030s might be fine on Moore’s law front. But if it wasn’t legibly a major factor recently, it’s not obvious it must become all that important even with the unusual inputs from AI datacenter scaling.
We haven’t yet seen the efficiency fallout of the 2022-2030 rapid scaling, and semi advancements take many years. So if some kind of experience curve effect wakes up as a central factor in semi efficiency, then 2030s might be fine on Moore’s law front. But if it wasn’t legibly a major factor recently, it’s not obvious it must become all that important even with the unusual inputs from AI datacenter scaling.
interesting point