4x one-time gain from Nvidia’s margin gradually going down
Nvidia margin is only about 25% of the datacenter though. See also the numbers on Nvidia TCO in the recent SemiAnalysis post on TPUs ($22bn per GW is “Nvidia GPU content”, out of $34bn of IT content, or about $50bn together with the buildings and infrastructure). And it’s not getting all the way down to 0%, though TPUs are already credibly competing (for running very large models, in the 20-100T total params range, Nvidia’s answer to Ironwood is Rubin Ultra NVL576, which will only arrive 2 years later).
This goes both ways, price-performance might keep improving for non-chip parts of datacenters even if it stalls for chips. I don’t think the trend can be reconstructed from concrete considerations this far in advance, only the abstract trend itself has anchor nature.
Nvidia margin is only about 25% of the datacenter though. See also the numbers on Nvidia TCO in the recent SemiAnalysis post on TPUs ($22bn per GW is “Nvidia GPU content”, out of $34bn of IT content, or about $50bn together with the buildings and infrastructure). And it’s not getting all the way down to 0%, though TPUs are already credibly competing (for running very large models, in the 20-100T total params range, Nvidia’s answer to Ironwood is Rubin Ultra NVL576, which will only arrive 2 years later).
This goes both ways, price-performance might keep improving for non-chip parts of datacenters even if it stalls for chips. I don’t think the trend can be reconstructed from concrete considerations this far in advance, only the abstract trend itself has anchor nature.