With the caveat that I’m not expecting gradual increase in investment at 1.1x/year, but instead wailing and gnashing of teeth in the early 2030s, followed by a faster increase in investment from a lower baseline. And this is all happening within the hypothetical where RLVR doesn’t work out at scale and there are no other transformative advancements all the way through 2045. I don’t particulary expect this hypothetical to become reality, but can’t confidently rule it out (hence this post).
I don’t have a sense of the supply-side picture, it seems more relevant for global inference buildout, I don’t see how it anchors capex of an individual company. The fraction an individual company contributes to the global chip market doesn’t seem like a meaningful number to me, more like a ratio of two unrelated numbers (as long as it’s not running towards the extremes, which it doesn’t in this case).
Yeah sounds reasonable, that would match up with my 1.56x/year number, so to summarize, we both think this is roughly plausible for 2028-2045?
1.3x/year (compute production) x 1.2x/year (compute efficiency) ~= 1.55x/year (compute available)
1.1x/year (investment) x 1.4x/year (price performance) ~= 1.55x/year (compute available)
So a 3x slowdown compared to the 2022-2028 trend (~3.5x/year).
With the caveat that I’m not expecting gradual increase in investment at 1.1x/year, but instead wailing and gnashing of teeth in the early 2030s, followed by a faster increase in investment from a lower baseline. And this is all happening within the hypothetical where RLVR doesn’t work out at scale and there are no other transformative advancements all the way through 2045. I don’t particulary expect this hypothetical to become reality, but can’t confidently rule it out (hence this post).
I don’t have a sense of the supply-side picture, it seems more relevant for global inference buildout, I don’t see how it anchors capex of an individual company. The fraction an individual company contributes to the global chip market doesn’t seem like a meaningful number to me, more like a ratio of two unrelated numbers (as long as it’s not running towards the extremes, which it doesn’t in this case).