My timelines got shorter. ChatGPT to GPT-4 rollout was only a few months (the start of an exponential takeoff, like our recent experience with COVID?), and then we had the FLI petition, and Eliezer’s ongoing podcast tour, and the ARC experiment with GPT-4 defeating a captcha by lying to a human.
I also personally experienced talking to these things, and they can more-or-less competently write code, one of the key requirements for an intelligence explosion scenario.
Before all this, I felt that the AI problem couldn’t possibly happen at present, and we still had decades, at least. I don’t think so anymore. All of the pieces are here and it’s only a matter of putting them together and adding more compute.
I used to have the bulk of my probability mass around 2045, because that’s when cheap compute would catch up with estimates of the processing power of the human brain. I now have significant probability mass on takeoff this decade, and noticeably nonzero mass on it having happened yesterday and not caught up with me.
My timelines got shorter. ChatGPT to GPT-4 rollout was only a few months (the start of an exponential takeoff, like our recent experience with COVID?), and then we had the FLI petition, and Eliezer’s ongoing podcast tour, and the ARC experiment with GPT-4 defeating a captcha by lying to a human.
I also personally experienced talking to these things, and they can more-or-less competently write code, one of the key requirements for an intelligence explosion scenario.
Before all this, I felt that the AI problem couldn’t possibly happen at present, and we still had decades, at least. I don’t think so anymore. All of the pieces are here and it’s only a matter of putting them together and adding more compute.
I used to have the bulk of my probability mass around 2045, because that’s when cheap compute would catch up with estimates of the processing power of the human brain. I now have significant probability mass on takeoff this decade, and noticeably nonzero mass on it having happened yesterday and not caught up with me.