Rough, non-weird probabilities can be given as extra info in the form of words of estimative probability.
That is not such a good solution, people have very different intuitive interpretations of those words, from Superforecasting
Kent said he was pessimistic. He felt the odds were about 65 to 35 in favor of an attack. The official was startled. He and his colleagues had taken “serious possibility” to mean much lower odds.10
Disturbed, Kent went back to his team. They had all agreed to use “serious possibility” in the [National Intelligence Estimate (NIE)] so Kent asked each person, in turn, what he thought it meant. One analyst said it meant odds of about 80 to 20, or four times more likely than not that there would be an invasion. Another thought it meant odds of 20 to 80—exactly the opposite. Other answers were scattered between those extremes. Kent was floored. A phrase that looked informative was so vague as to be almost useless. Or perhaps it was worse than useless, as it had created dangerous misunderstandings. And what about all the other work they had done? Had they “been seeming to agree on five months’ worth of estimative judgments with no real agreement at all?” Kent wrote in a 1964 essay. “Were the NIEs dotted with ‘serious possibilities’ and other expressions that meant very different things to both producers and readers? What were we really trying to say when we wrote a sentence such as this?”11
And if you are concerned about not looking weird to a good friend, it seems like also not a very good option to send them a table of probability words to memorize before talking with you.
Phrasing in the essay may have been poor: I’m not saying use those specifically nor asking anyone to memorize them, but rather just making sure to use words that convey different likelihoods. Your point about wildly different interpretations still holds.
That is not such a good solution, people have very different intuitive interpretations of those words, from Superforecasting
And if you are concerned about not looking weird to a good friend, it seems like also not a very good option to send them a table of probability words to memorize before talking with you.
Phrasing in the essay may have been poor: I’m not saying use those specifically nor asking anyone to memorize them, but rather just making sure to use words that convey different likelihoods. Your point about wildly different interpretations still holds.